TAS1 experienced sustained negative pricing during the late evening of 11 July 2026, with prices reaching −$5.65/MWh in one interval and remaining negative across two consecutive settlement periods. The region generated substantial renewable energy from wind (507–523 MW) and hydro (329–535 MW) during this period, with no OCGT generation active.
The negative pricing reflects an oversupply condition in which renewable generation exceeded demand, forcing generators to pay for dispatch. Multiple binding constraints (principally constraint_id F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 with marginal values of $3.42–$9.24/MWh, and constraint_id F_T+RREG_0050 with marginal value $5.05/MWh) restricted the region's ability to export surplus generation or curtail inexpensive renewable output, exacerbating the imbalance and driving prices into negative territory.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.