Tasmania experienced high renewable penetration of 88.6% on 9 September 2026, with renewable sources (hydro, wind, and rooftop PV) dominating the generation mix across the observed settlement periods. Wholesale prices exhibited significant volatility during the early morning period, ranging from $20.12/MWh to $93.17/MWh across five-minute intervals.
The price volatility despite high renewable penetration was driven by binding constraints with notable marginal values, particularly constraint F_T+RREG_0050 (marginal value $15.35) and constraint F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 (marginal values ranging from $6.80 to $7.79), indicating transmission or network limitations were restricting renewable export or system flexibility. The sharp price spike peaking at $93.17/MWh at 06:45 followed by a collapse to $20.12/MWh at 06:55 suggests rapid changes in constraint binding status and renewable output, typical of early morning wind and solar variability interacting with network congestion.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.