QLD1 experienced sustained negative pricing over three intervals on 24 August 2026, with the lowest point reaching −$7.01/MWh at 05:45 UTC. Prices progressively declined from zero before turning negative, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance during the early morning period.
The negative pricing was driven by high solar and wind generation (approximately 4.7 GW combined) during a low-demand early morning period, with coal and gas generation unable to effectively reduce output to balance supply. Multiple binding constraints, particularly those with marginal values of $31.81 and $29.13, constrained the ability to export or manage excess generation, forcing prices into negative territory to incentivise load and curtailment.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.