NSW1 experienced sustained negative pricing at −$6.10/MWh during the 02:45 settlement interval on 4 August 2026, part of a two-interval negative pricing event in the early morning period. Price volatility was pronounced across the preceding intervals, ranging from $52.25/MWh to negative territory, before stabilising above zero post-event.
The negative pricing reflects an oversupply condition typical of early morning periods characterised by high solar (2,756 MW) and wind generation (1,274 MW) combined with lower demand, forcing marginal generation to be dispatched at zero or negative prices to balance the system. Multiple binding constraints with varying marginal values (ranging from $4.07 to $61.22) indicate transmission congestion or operational limits were active during this period, constraining the ability to export or redistribute excess renewable generation, which exacerbated downward pressure on the regional price.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.