VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at −$1.10/MWh across two consecutive intervals (03:30 and 03:35 on 29 July 2026), representing minor severity. The region was characterised by high renewable generation (approximately 3,133 MW of wind plus 451 MW of solar) combined with substantial brown coal output (3,255 MW), creating excess supply during an off-peak period.
Negative pricing resulted from oversupply in VIC1 during the early morning period when demand was low, with wind and solar generation unable to be efficiently curtailed or exported. The binding constraint F_T+RREG_0050 with marginal values ranging from 2.66 to 3.19 indicates network or operational limitations that restricted the market's ability to manage the surplus generation, forcing the system price downward as generators competed to avoid shutdown penalties.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.