VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at approximately –$1.15/MWh across multiple intervals during the early morning of 28 July 2026. The episode persisted across at least seven consecutive settlement intervals, indicating a structural imbalance between supply and demand.
The negative pricing reflects excess renewable generation, particularly from wind (3,377–3,240 MW) and solar (712.77 MW), coinciding with low minimum demand overnight. Binding constraints with marginal values of $4.53–$4.98 (including F_T+RREG_0050 and F_TASCAP_RREG_0220) indicate that transmission or ancillary service requirements limited the ability to export surplus VIC1 generation or balance supply across the broader NEM, forcing prices negative to clear the market.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.