TAS1 experienced a sharp price spike to $350.36/MWh across two consecutive intervals (07:45 and 07:50 on 21 June 2026), representing a more than four-fold increase from the prior interval's $138.39/MWh. Prices escalated progressively from $60.28/MWh over the preceding 25 minutes before spiking sharply.
The price spike was driven by binding constraints F_T+RREG_0050 and F_T++NIL_MG_R60, with marginal values of approximately $325/MWh and $285/MWh respectively during the spike intervals, indicating these constraints were limiting available supply. The generation mix remained stable with hydro output between 1,209–1,433 MW and minimal wind and gas contribution, suggesting the constraint-driven limitation rather than a supply shortage was the primary price driver.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.