Tasmania experienced a major constraint event on 25 June 2026 during the morning peak period, with binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ reaching an exceptional marginal value of $7.308 million. Regional prices exhibited high volatility, fluctuating between $70.28 and $106.78/MWh across the five-minute settlement intervals, with the constraint binding at multiple points throughout the analysed period.
The extreme marginal value of binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ indicates a severe physical limitation on power transfer at this specific location, creating substantial scarcity pricing in the region. Tasmania's generation mix during this event was dominated by hydroelectric output (approximately 1,472–1,479 MW across successive periods), with minimal wind and no gas generation available, limiting the flexibility to resolve the constraint through alternative supply sources or routing options.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.