A major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with an exceptionally high shadow price of $7.308 million per MWh was active in TAS1 during the 13:30–13:55 settlement window on 20 June 2026. Regional prices remained relatively stable in the $60–$63 range despite the constraint's extreme marginal value, with Tasmania relying almost entirely on hydroelectric generation (approximately 1060–1105 MW) supplemented by minor wind output.
The binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ with its exceptional marginal value indicates a severe physical limitation in the network preventing dispatch of lower-cost supply or export capacity, though prices did not spike proportionally, suggesting demand-side constraints or offsetting supply availability may have limited the constraint's price impact. The dominance of hydro generation and absence of gas-fired plant indicates Tasmania was operating near available renewable capacity, with the binding constraint likely reflecting a transmission bottleneck that prevented fuller utilisation of available generation or efficient regional trade.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.