Victoria experienced sustained negative pricing at -$1.15/MWh across two consecutive intervals (00:00–00:05 on 12 July 2026), following a period of deeper negative prices reaching -$6.07/MWh. The event occurred during high renewable generation, with wind contributing approximately 7,500 MW and solar 511.5 MW alongside 3,266 MW of brown coal generation.
The negative pricing was driven by excess supply relative to demand during the overnight period, with high wind and solar output unable to be fully dispatched or exported. Binding constraints with significant marginal values—particularly F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 (peaking at $9.24/MWh)—restricted the relief of local oversupply, forcing the market into negative territory to incentivise load or curtailment. The absence of gas-fired generation (both OCGT and CCGT at zero output) removed flexible supply-side response that would normally moderate price spikes and troughs.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.