Tasmania's electricity region achieved 100% renewable generation during the evening of 30 June 2026, with hydro and wind sources combining to meet all demand. Regional prices remained subdued at $10–$25/MWh for most of the period before rising to $50.20/MWh in the final two intervals, despite sustained high renewable output.
The sustained low pricing through most of the event reflects the oversupply created by 100% renewable generation, with minimal marginal cost from hydro and wind resources. The sharp price spike to $50.20/MWh in the final two settlement periods, despite renewable penetration remaining at 100%, indicates that binding constraint F_MAIN+RREG_0220 became increasingly restrictive (marginal values declining from ~$4.99 to ~$4.08), suggesting physical or operational limits on renewable dispatch or network capability became the binding factor in pricing, rather than fuel scarcity.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.