VIC1 experienced two consecutive intervals of negative pricing at -$1.10/MWh on 2 August 2026 at 12:15 and 12:20, representing a minor pricing event. Prices recovered to $8.94/MWh in the subsequent interval, indicating a brief and localised excess generation condition.
The negative pricing occurred during a period of very high wind generation (approximately 3.7 GW), combined with substantial brown coal output (3.5 GW) and minimal solar contribution, creating supply-demand imbalance. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values between $4.91 and $6.80 indicate transmission limitations were active during this period, likely constraining the ability to export excess VIC1 generation or import flexible capacity, forcing the price floor to activate as generators were required to remain online despite surplus supply.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.