VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing of approximately –$5/MWh across two consecutive intervals (03:45 and 03:55 on 7 August 2026), with prices ranging from –$5.37 to –$4.67/MWh. This occurred during a period of very low overall price levels (predominantly under $1–$5/MWh) in the broader pricing window.
The negative pricing was driven by binding constraints with marginal values of $4.26–$5.31/MWh, indicating active network or operational limitations that forced the dispatch of generation at the margin to negative prices rather than curtailing surplus supply. The generation mix shows substantial renewable output (1,468 MW combined wind across two entries plus 1,010 MW solar) coinciding with 3,505 MW of brown coal generation during a low-demand overnight period, creating a structural oversupply condition that activated the binding constraints and drove prices negative as the market sought to manage the supply–demand imbalance within operational limits.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.