A major binding constraint event occurred in TAS1 on 21 September 2026 during the evening period, with constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ exhibiting an exceptionally high shadow price of $8,352,000/MWh. This extreme marginal value significantly exceeded all other active constraints in the region, indicating severe scarcity conditions. Regional electricity prices during this interval ranged from $70–$88/MWh, reflecting the underlying supply-demand tightness.
The extreme shadow price on constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ indicates this constraint was the dominant limiter on available supply, with the binding constraint's marginal value dwarfing secondary constraints by several orders of magnitude. The generation mix during this period comprised approximately 1,370–1,640 MW of hydro, 160–180 MW of wind, and 205–210 MW of gas OCGT capacity, suggesting that available supply was constrained by the binding limit imposed by T_BLINK_TV_NGZ rather than by inadequate generation resources, making the constraint itself the primary driver of the extreme price signal.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.