VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at –$0.05/MWh across two consecutive intervals (14:00–14:05 on 15 June 2026), representing a minor market event. Prices recovered to near-zero and positive levels in surrounding intervals, with the negative pricing episode flanked by brief zero and low-price intervals.
The negative pricing was driven by an oversupply condition in which high renewable generation (combined wind output of 6,684 MW) and brown coal generation (3,360 MW) exceeded demand, creating downward pressure on prices. The binding constraints with the highest marginal values (F_T+LREG_0050 at $10.82/MWh and F_MAIN+RREG_0220 peaking at $7.79/MWh) indicate that regulation service requirements were active in managing system stability during this high-generation period, but these constraint costs were insufficient to prevent negative pricing as excess thermal and renewable supply persisted.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.