VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing across three consecutive intervals (18:30–18:40 on 2 August 2026), reaching a minimum of −$1.10/MWh. The event occurred during a period of high wind generation (approximately 3317 MW) combined with significant brown coal output (3296 MW), creating oversupply conditions in the region.
The negative pricing was driven by an excess of inflexible generation supply relative to demand, with wind and coal together contributing over 6600 MW during the affected period. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values (the highest being a constraint with $50/MWh marginal value) indicate that network limitations were active, preventing efficient dispatch of surplus generation and forcing prices negative to incentivise reduction in output.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.