TAS1 experienced sustained negative pricing across five intervals between 06:10 and 06:40 on 2 August 2026, with prices ranging from -$12.81/MWh to -$5.94/MWh. The most severe pricing occurred in the 06:10–06:25 window, with prices below -$6/MWh for three consecutive intervals.
The negative pricing was driven by high renewable generation in Tasmania, with combined hydro and wind output ranging from 421–595 MW during the event period, coinciding with low system demand typical of early morning hours. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values between $3–$4.99/MWh, including F_TASCAP_RREG_0220, F_T+RREG_0050, and F_T+LREG_0050, indicate that interconnector or regulation service constraints were limiting Tasmania's ability to export excess generation, forcing local thermal and renewable generators to bid negatively to clear the market.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.