Tasmania experienced 100% renewable generation during the evening peak of 2 July 2026, with hydro and wind resources combining to meet all demand. Prices fell sharply into negative territory (reaching −$6.17/MWh) before recovering toward zero as the period progressed, indicating a temporary supply surplus relative to system requirements.
The sustained negative and near-zero pricing reflects excess renewable generation with limited flexibility to curtail or export, typical of high hydro-wind coincidence periods. The binding constraint F_T+RREG_0050 maintained a consistently tight marginal value around $4.00/MWh throughout the settlement period, indicating this constraint was the primary economic constraint limiting further price suppression and preventing deeper negative pricing despite abundant generation.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.