Tasmania experienced high renewable penetration of 90.9% on 25 September 2026 at 07:00–07:30 UTC, with hydro generation dominating at approximately 1,004–1,128 MW across the dispatch interval. Regional reference prices (RRP) remained moderate, ranging from $88.18 to $93.98/MWh, despite the high renewable contribution.
The high renewable penetration reflects strong hydro availability in Tasmania, with combined hydro output of 3,037 MW across three sequential intervals, supplemented by wind generation of 107–125 MW. A binding constraint with marginal value of $5.18/MWh was repeatedly active throughout the period, indicating that this constraint was limiting dispatch and contributing to the relatively subdued price outcomes despite the renewable dominance.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.