VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing across three consecutive intervals on 13 September 2026, with the Real-Time Price (RRP) reaching a minimum of -$9.23/MWh between 01:25 and 02:00. The episode occurred during a period of high renewable generation, with wind contributing approximately 4,005 MW and solar 687 MW to the regional supply.
The negative pricing reflects an over-supply condition in VIC1 driven by high concurrent wind and solar generation during off-peak hours when demand is low. Binding constraints with marginal values between 4.01 and 4.69 $/MWh indicate that constraint-binding conditions were limiting the ability to export surplus generation, forcing marginal generators to accept negative prices to remain dispatched and maintain system stability.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.