Victoria experienced sustained negative pricing with rates falling to −$12.73/MWh during the 15:40–15:50 interval window on 12 June 2026. The event occurred across 2 intervals during a period of high wind generation (approximately 6,034 MW combined) and elevated brown coal output (3,068 MW), creating excess supply relative to demand.
The negative pricing reflects a supply-demand imbalance driven by the combination of high wind generation and inflexible coal-fired generation unable to ramp down quickly. This surplus was exacerbated by binding constraints with significant marginal values (F_T+LREG_0050 at $47.09/MWh), indicating network or stability limitations that constrained the ability to export excess generation or reduce output, forcing generators to pay for dispatch.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.