A binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with an exceptionally high shadow price of $8.35 million per MWh activated in Tasmania on 15 September 2026 at approximately 13:30, causing regional prices to spike from $44.58 to $60.97/MWh over a 10-minute period. The constraint remained binding across multiple settlement intervals before prices moderated to $40.10/MWh by 13:45.
The extreme shadow price on constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ indicates a severe physical limitation preventing economically efficient dispatch, likely driven by the combination of high demand during the midday period and the region's generation composition heavily dependent on hydro (approximately 1509 MW) and wind (approximately 797 MW) sources. The activation of this primary constraint alongside multiple secondary binding constraints (F_T+LREG_0050 and F_TASCAP_RREG_0220) suggests the dispatch was constrained across multiple dimensions simultaneously, forcing the market to accept significant price premiums to manage the supply-demand balance within operational limits.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.