VIC1 experienced minor negative pricing at $-1.05/MWh for one settlement interval on 23 July 2026 at 02:40, with prices remaining near-zero ($-0.02/MWh) in the following interval. This pricing event occurred during an overnight period with substantial wind generation (approximately 2,514 MW average) and significant brown coal capacity online (3,502 MW).
The negative pricing reflects a supply surplus during low-demand overnight hours, with high wind output and inflexible brown coal generation unable to ramp down sufficiently. The binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ with a marginal value of $8.352M suggests a significant network or transmission limitation was active, likely constraining the ability to export excess generation or balance supply across the region, thereby forcing prices negative to incentivise demand response or generation withdrawal.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.