A major binding constraint (N_QPSFB_L_9INV) with an exceptional shadow price of $812,000/MWh occurred in NSW1 on 1 July 2026 at midday, causing NSW1 RRP to decline from $91.22 to $74.06/MWh over a 20-minute period. The constraint remained binding whilst the market adjusted generation dispatch to relieve the limitation.
The extremely high marginal value of the binding constraint N_QPSFB_L_9INV indicates a severe physical limitation was restricting power flows or generation at that location. The generation mix at the time—dominated by black coal (5,318 MW) and wind (1,886 MW) with minimal gas-fired generation (26 MW)—reflects the constraints imposed by this binding equation, suggesting the system was operating at or near a critical operational limit that required substantial economic penalty to manage within engineering requirements.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.