A major binding constraint (N_QPSFB_L_7INV) in NSW1 reached an exceptionally high shadow price of $710,422/MWh during the early morning period of 9 June 2026. NSW1 regional reference prices during this period remained modest at $67.99–$73.64/MWh, indicating the constraint was limiting available supply relative to demand.
The extremely high marginal value on the binding constraint N_QPSFB_L_7INV suggests severe physical congestion or an active network limitation preventing the dispatch of lower-cost generation. The generation mix at the time—dominated by solar (2,297.65 MW) and black coal (3,744.26 MW) with minimal gas and battery support—indicates that daytime renewable abundance did not relieve the specific constraint, implying it reflects a localised or directional network bottleneck rather than a system-wide shortage. The presence of multiple binding constraints with much lower marginal values suggests this particular constraint was the active limiting factor on system dispatch.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.