Victoria experienced sustained negative pricing of $-2/MWh across two consecutive intervals (16:25–16:30) on 2 June 2026, with prices gradually declining from $-0.81/MWh before reaching the floor. This minor severity event reflects oversupply conditions in the VIC1 region during the late afternoon period.
High instantaneous wind generation (combined ~6,187 MW) coupled with inflexible brown coal baseload (2,883 MW) created an excess supply situation that demand could not absorb, forcing prices negative to incentivise load curtailment. The binding transmission constraint F_T+RREG_0050 (likely a local network constraint with marginal values of $5–6/MWh) exacerbated the situation by restricting energy flow out of the region, trapping surplus renewable generation and preventing economic export to neighbouring regions.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.