Tasmania experienced a major constraint event on 9 September 2026 at 16:00–16:25 UTC, with binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ reaching an exceptional shadow price of $8.352 million/MWh. Regional reference prices fluctuated between $22.86 and $60.10/MWh during the five 5-minute settlement periods, indicating significant transmission or capability limitations.
The extreme marginal value of T_BLINK_TV_NGZ—orders of magnitude larger than the concurrent regional energy prices—indicates a binding constraint that severely restricted dispatch flexibility and capacity. Tasmania's generation mix during the event comprised approximately 2,421 MW of hydro, 1,451 MW of wind, and 248 MW of gas-fired generation, suggesting the constraint was active despite adequate supply resources; the binding constraint with marginal value $8.352 million therefore reflects a physical network or operational limitation preventing normal energy flows rather than genuine scarcity.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.