Tasmania achieved 100% renewable penetration on 1 September 2026 during the early morning period (06:35–06:55), with wind and hydro generation totalling approximately 1,244–1,359 MW across successive settlement periods. Regional reference prices (RRP) fluctuated between $21.30 and $38.59/MWh during this window, indicating moderate volatility despite the high renewable contribution.
The binding constraint F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 consistently constrained the market across four consecutive settlement periods with marginal values declining from $15.49 to $4.99/MWh, suggesting a physical limit on export or network capability was restricting dispatch and moderating price outcomes. The presence of an additional binding constraint (F_T+RREG_0050) with a marginal value of $4.53/MWh in the final period indicates multiple system limitations were active, collectively limiting the economic benefit of the high renewable supply and contributing to the observed price volatility.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.