Tasmania experienced 92.1% renewable penetration during the early morning of 9 September 2026, with hydro and wind generation totalling approximately 3,653 MW against total generation of 3,964 MW. Regional reference prices rose from $102.68/MWh to a peak of $122.72/MWh at 06:50 UTC despite high renewable supply, before moderating to around $110/MWh by 07:00 UTC.
The price elevation despite overwhelming renewable penetration indicates supply-side constraint rather than demand-driven pricing. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values between $4.94–$5.56/MWh—dominated by constraint F_TASCAP_RREG_0220—suggest localised network or regulation capacity limitations were active, preventing further output from lower-cost renewable generators and necessitating more expensive marginal plant (gas OCGT at ~125 MW) to meet load, thereby setting the market-clearing price at higher levels than renewable-only economics would support.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.