Tasmania (TAS1) experienced high renewable penetration of 90% during the morning of 24 August 2026, driven by substantial hydro generation (averaging ~1,098 MW across the period) supplemented by wind output. Regional prices ranged from $66–$109/MWh across the five-minute settlement intervals, with volatility concentrated in the 06:10–06:15 window.
The high renewable penetration reflects dominant hydro generation combined with moderate wind output totalling approximately 305 MW, which displaced thermal generation to minimal levels (gas OCGT averaging ~137 MW). Binding constraints F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 and F_T+RREG_0050, with marginal values of $4.97–$7.79/MWh and $4.29/MWh respectively, indicate that system security or network limits constrained dispatchable output during this period, preventing further reduction in thermal generation or export of surplus renewable capacity and thereby supporting observed price levels above baseline marginal cost.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.