VIC1 experienced negative pricing at $-5.03/MWh during the 03:40 interval on 12 September 2026, with a second occurrence at 04:10, constituting minor negative price events. The region's generation was dominated by solar (1050 MW) and brown coal (2031 MW) alongside substantial wind generation (1064 MW combined), creating an oversupply condition during the early morning period.
The negative pricing reflects excess generation relative to demand during low-demand early morning hours, exacerbated by high solar and wind output that must be accommodated. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values between 3.0 and 4.62 $/MWh indicate that network or operational constraints were limiting the ability to export surplus generation or adjust dispatch, forcing the market price negative to incentivise consumption or reduce generation.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.