VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at approximately -8/MWh across three intervals during the early morning of 9 September 2026. The region had high renewable generation (wind at 5,036 MW combined and solar at 849 MW) coupled with brown coal generation at 2,733 MW, creating an oversupply situation that drove prices negative.
The negative pricing was driven by excess generation capacity relative to demand during the low-demand early morning period, with renewable generation (particularly wind) contributing substantially to the supply surplus. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values between 4.4 and 5.47 $/MWh indicate that network congestion or inter-regional transfer limits were active, preventing excess VIC1 generation from being exported efficiently to manage the local oversupply and mitigate downward price pressure.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.