VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing over two intervals on 4 September 2026, with the minimum price reaching −$60.91/MWh and a second trough of −$48.16/MWh occurring within a 30-minute window. The region's generation mix was dominated by wind (approximately 6,856 MW combined) and brown coal (3,732 MW), with minimal flexible generation capacity available.
The negative pricing reflects an oversupply condition in which high wind generation combined with inflexible brown coal output exceeded demand, creating downward price pressure. Multiple binding constraints with modest marginal values (ranging from $4.41 to $5.49/MWh) indicate transmission or reserve requirement limitations that prevented efficient redistribution of excess generation to adjacent regions, forcing the market to accept negative prices to clear supply.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.