VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing across five consecutive trading intervals on 2 July 2026 between 17:25 and 17:55, with prices ranging from −$7.61/MWh to −$6.60/MWh. The negative pricing persisted despite a generation mix dominated by approximately 6,340 MW of wind generation and 2,864 MW of brown coal.
The negative pricing reflects an oversupply condition in VIC1 during the evening period when demand could not absorb the available generation, particularly the high wind output. The binding constraint F_T+RREG_0050 with a marginal value of $2.91/MWh across multiple intervals suggests this constraint was limiting dispatch flexibility, preventing generators from reducing output or constraining interconnector flows, thereby forcing the regional price below zero as the market sought to manage excess supply.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.