VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at −$1.15/MWh across two intervals late on 1 July 2026, with prices recovering to positive levels in intervening periods. The event occurred during a period of high renewable generation, with wind contributing approximately 4,174 MW and solar 415 MW to the regional mix.
Negative pricing in VIC1 reflects an oversupply condition where available generation exceeded demand, forcing marginal generators to accept negative prices. The high renewable output combined with binding constraints (F_MAIN+RREG_0220 and F_T+RREG_0050) with marginal values between 4.54 and 6.8 suggests that network constraints limited the ability to export excess generation, creating localised price pressure despite the absence of on-peak demand.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.