QLD1 experienced sustained negative pricing at approximately -$3/MWh across two consecutive intervals (03:35–03:40) on 14 September 2026 during the early morning period. The negative pricing persisted intermittently through to 03:55, with the lowest point reaching -$3.73/MWh at 03:40.
The negative pricing occurred during a period of high solar generation (approximately 2,800–2,844 MW) combined with relatively low overall demand, creating an oversupply condition typical of early morning solar ramps. The binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ exhibited an exceptionally high marginal value of $8,352,000, indicating severe scarcity or constraint violation penalties in that region, which likely forced dispatch of inflexible generation and contributed to the negative price outcome as the market required downward adjustment rather than curtailment.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.