A binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) in TAS1 reached an exceptionally high shadow price of $8.352 million/MWh on 2 August 2026 at 23:05–23:10 UTC, causing spot prices to spike from $0.20/MWh to $3.14/MWh. The constraint remained binding throughout the incident period alongside several other secondary constraints with much lower marginal values.
The primary driver was the binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ reaching its marginal limit, creating severe scarcity pricing that forced the spot market into the observed price spike. With hydro generation stable at 1055–1223 MW, wind output declining from 307 to 212 MW, and OCGT capacity holding at ~124 MW, the system was unable to relieve the constraint's binding status, allowing its extreme shadow price to propagate directly into the settlement price.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.