Victoria (VIC1) experienced minor negative pricing on 28 August 2026 in the evening, with prices reaching –$3.5/MWh across 2 consecutive settlement intervals. The negative pricing followed a period of lower positive prices, reflecting an oversupply condition in the region during a time of high renewable generation.
The event occurred during a period of elevated solar (1,471 MW) and wind generation (806 MW combined) coinciding with lower operational demand in the evening shoulder period. Multiple binding constraints with modest marginal values (ranging from $3.54–$4.99/MWh) suggest supply-demand imbalance was managed through network and reserve constraint limitations rather than a single dominant transmission bottleneck, leading to the marginal price signal turning negative as lower-cost generation was required to clear the market.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.