Tasmania experienced high renewable penetration of 85.1% on 13 September 2026, with hydroelectric and wind generation totalling approximately 1,748 MW across the dispatch interval. Regional reference prices remained at the $0.01 floor for five consecutive five-minute settlements before spiking to $32.02 in the final settlement period, indicating a rapid shift in marginal pricing dynamics.
The extended floor-price period reflects abundant renewable supply suppressing marginal costs, with combined hydro and wind generation far exceeding typical minimum load requirements. The sharp price spike in the final settlement suggests binding constraints with material marginal values—particularly F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 ($6.80/MWh), F_TASCAP_LREG_0210 ($5.58/MWh), and F_T+RREG_0050 ($4.00/MWh)—activated during dispatch, indicating that regional regulation or ramp-rate limits became operative as renewable supply characteristics or system requirements changed within the settlement window.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.