Carbon Forecast: Monday 14 September 2026

Tasmania holds the lowest carbon intensity in the NEM at 0.0614 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 90.55%, driven by 774 MW of hydro and 420 MW of wind against just 125 MW of gas OCGT. South Australia sits close behind at 0.1121 tCO2/MWh with 80.97% renewables, with wind contributing 988 MW alongside 166 MW of battery output and 271 MW of gas across OCGT and CCGT units. At the other end, Victoria currently reads 0.7467 tCO2/MWh (38.79% renewable) with brown coal at 3688 MW dominant against 2277 MW of wind, while NSW sits at 0.731 tCO2/MWh (16.75% renewable) with black coal at 5121 MW well ahead of a 453 MW wind and 147 MW solar contribution. Queensland is at 0.6784 tCO2/MWh with 22.54% renewables, black coal running 5106 MW against 865 MW wind and 282 MW solar.

The past 24 hours show a clear diurnal pattern across the mainland regions: intensity troughs overnight when wind generation peaks and demand is lower, then climbs sharply through the morning as solar fades from the equation before midday and coal/gas ramps to cover the evening peak. NSW moved from a low of 0.307 tCO2/MWh around 01:30 AEST up to a peak of 0.7468 tCO2/MWh by 18:30, a swing of over 440 kg/MWh. Queensland and Victoria follow similar trajectories, troughing in the early hours between 0.40-0.70 tCO2/MWh and climbing into the evening as solar output drops away and coal-fired generation fills the gap.

Through the rest of today, expect NSW, VIC and QLD intensity to remain elevated into the early evening peak (typically 17:00-19:00 AEST) before easing overnight as wind resumes higher output and demand tapers. The next low-carbon window for carbon-sensitive loads on the mainland is likely overnight from roughly 22:00 AEST through to 05:00 AEST tomorrow, mirroring last night's pattern where NSW dropped below 0.32 tCO2/MWh and QLD sat near 0.42-0.44 tCO2/MWh. SA and TAS remain in low-intensity territory throughout the day regardless of time, with SA fluctuating between 0.06-0.22 tCO2/MWh depending on wind output and TAS staying consistently below 0.10 tCO2/MWh — both are the standout choices for any carbon-sensitive scheduling today, with SA warranting a check around midday when its intensity briefly touched 0.22 tCO2/MWh during a wind lull.