Interconnector Watch: Sunday 6 September 2026

VIC-NSW is binding at 710 MW, sitting right at its export limit as Victoria pushes power north into New South Wales. This flow is consistent with the $44.63/MWh price gap between the regions ($90.01/MWh in NSW1 versus $45.38/MWh in VIC1) — NSW is drawing on cheaper Victorian generation to the full extent the interconnector allows, and with the link constrained at capacity, NSW prices remain unable to fully converge with VIC. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is also binding, flowing 86 MW from SA into Victoria, pinned exactly at its import limit — an unusual configuration where the constraint is capping flow into Victoria rather than out of it.

QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 651 MW from Queensland into NSW, well inside its -1095 MW import limit, so there's spare capacity on this path despite the $9.08/MWh NSW-QLD spread ($90.01/MWh versus $80.93/MWh). Directlink is carrying a modest 25 MW in the same direction (QLD to NSW), also comfortably within limits. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is exporting 241 MW from Tasmania to Victoria, using around 54% of its 443 MW export limit, with TAS1 pricing at $57.36/MWh against VIC1's $45.38/MWh — flow direction aligns with the price differential but the link isn't stretched. Heywood (V-SA) is exporting 103 MW from Victoria into SA, again well short of its limit, with SA1 at $63.67/MWh sitting above VIC1.

The binding constraints today trace back to network conditions flagged in AEMO notices: an unplanned outage of the Keith-Kincraig 132kV line in SA triggered the S-KHKN constraint set on V-SA/Murraylink flows on 4 September, and a short-notice outage of the Sydney West-Vineyard No.29 330kV line invoked the N-SWVY_29 constraint set affecting Directlink, QNI and VIC-NSW simultaneously. Both outages remain active and are the likely drivers behind VIC-NSW sitting pinned at its export ceiling this morning. Separately, a series of VIC1 and TAS1 lightning-related contingency reclassifications around the Yallourn-Rowville, Gordon-Chapel St, Tungatinah-Waddamana and Farrell-Reece lines were raised and subsequently cancelled over 4-5 September, so those constraint sets are no longer active but warrant monitoring given the region's recent lightning activity. Traders should watch VIC-NSW and Murraylink for any easing once the underlying network outages are rectified, as that would allow further NSW-VIC price convergence.