Commodity Demand — NSW1: Sunday 16 August 2026
NSW demand sits at 8,701 MW as of 06:25 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of 6,750-6,900 MW, with spot price at $57.92/MWh. The overnight period (00:00-05:00 AEST) saw demand hold in the high-6,000s to low-7,000s MW range, with prices anchored between $23-43/MWh — a clean, low-volatility band as minimum demand conditions prevailed. That relationship breaks down once the morning ramp begins.
The data shows NSW price sensitivity to demand is steep once load pushes past roughly 8,000 MW. Between 06:00 and 08:00 AEST, demand climbed from 7,920 MW to 9,980 MW — a 26% increase — and price responded non-linearly, spiking from $42.82/MWh to a peak of $90.08/MWh at 8,421 MW (06:30 AEST), with prints as high as $88.85/MWh shortly after. This is the steepest price-demand gradient of the day so far: each additional 100 MW of morning ramp is adding several dollars per MWh as thinner-margin generation is dispatched. Demand peaked near 10,160 MW around 08:25-08:30 AEST, coinciding with prices holding in the high-$70s to low-$80s/MWh, before easing back through the morning as demand receded to around 9,700-9,900 MW.
The forecast trajectory points to a second, sharper peak. AEMO's forecast curve shows prices climbing from $53/MWh at 06:30 AEST tomorrow-equivalent window through to a forecast peak of $87.85/MWh around 08:30 AEST, consistent with the pattern already observed this morning. Later in the day, forecast prices ease back into the low-$40s/MWh from 13:00 AEST onward as demand tapers, mirroring today's afternoon de-rating pattern where demand fell from a midday high near 8,700 MW back to around 7,000-7,200 MW by 17:00-19:00 AEST with prices settling in the $43-60/MWh band. Expect a further evening uplift as demand climbs back above 8,000 MW toward the 20:00-21:00 AEST peak, with forecast RRP reaching $69-71/MWh in that window.
On the supply side, black coal is carrying 5,946 MW of the current 8,297 MW generation mix recorded, with wind contributing 1,478 MW and hydro 714 MW; renewable penetration sits at 27.7% with carbon intensity at 0.635 tCO2/MWh, both consistent with the low wind conditions reported (2.2 km/h) and overcast skies (58% cloud cover) suppressing renewable output during today's peak-forming hours. No demand-side notices are in effect for NSW today — the active market notices concern transmission line outages (Lismore, Directlink) and non-conformance events in other regions, none of which point to load-shedding or demand-response activation.