Interconnector Watch: Tuesday 11 August 2026

VIC-NSW and Basslink are both binding right now, and together they're setting up the key price relationships across the NEM this morning.

VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) is exporting 832 MW from Victoria into NSW, sitting right at its 832 MW export limit — fully utilised. This flow is doing the work of bridging a stark price gap: VIC1 is at $10.65/MWh while NSW1 sits at $130.54/MWh, a spread of roughly $120/MWh. Victoria's cheap generation is flowing north to help meet NSW demand (9183 MW), but the interconnector is capped, so it can't fully arbitrage the spread — NSW prices stay elevated despite available low-cost supply next door. QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is only flowing 77.81 MW north into QLD, right at its export limit too, but that's a small cap relative to the QLD1 price of $190.99/MWh — the highest in the NEM. QNI's constrained export limit (versus a much larger import limit of -1100 MW) means NSW can't lean on Queensland, and Queensland can't draw down NSW supply either, leaving QLD1 prices exposed on their own.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is binding on its import limit, flowing 385.83 MW from TAS1 into VIC1 — fully utilised at the -385.83 MW cap. Tasmanian generation (TAS1 at $11.86/MWh) is helping supply Victoria's low-price pool alongside local VIC generation, reinforcing the cheap VIC1/TAS1/SA1 cluster (SA1 at $9.59/MWh). Heywood (V-SA) is flowing 405 MW from VIC1 into SA1, well within its -550/-278 MW range and not binding, while Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is only moving 36 MW into SA1 — both interconnectors have spare capacity, consistent with the tight SA1-VIC1 price convergence (both under $11/MWh). Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) is negligible at 9 MW, not a material factor today.

Three active AEMO constraint notices are shaping NSW-QLD limits: an unplanned outage on the Bayswater-Sydney West No.32 330kV line (from 10 August) invoked constraint set N-BWSW_32 affecting QNI, Directlink and VIC-NSW; a Tarong circuit breaker outage in QLD invoking Q-HATR on QNI and Directlink; and an automated NSW security constraint (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) also binding on QNI and Directlink. These combined constraints explain why QNI's export limit is pinned so low at 77.81 MW despite the large NSW-QLD price differential — network security limitations, not generation availability, are capping interregional transfer and keeping QLD1 prices isolated at the top of the NEM stack this morning.