Commodity Demand — SA1: Sunday 2 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $80.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,521 MW, up sharply from the sub-1,000 MW trough recorded around 10:00-11:00pm last night when prices fell as low as -$60/MWh. This morning's ramp shows the market's typical demand-price coupling: as demand climbed from the overnight low of roughly 540 MW (03:30-04:30 AEST) toward the current 1,500-2,000 MW band, prices moved from deeply negative territory through zero and into the $50-140/MWh range during the 07:00-09:00 AEST ramp, peaking briefly at $138/MWh at 08:55 AEST when demand hit 1,890 MW.
The overnight low-demand window was driven by wind generation covering the bulk of a much smaller load, pushing renewable penetration above 95% and carbon intensity below 0.02 tCO2/MWh in several intervals — consistent with the negative pricing seen through the small hours. As demand builds through today, gas plant (OCGT and CCGT currently contributing 300 MW combined) and battery output (40 MW) are filling the gap alongside wind (883 MW), with the generation mix shifting the carbon intensity up to 0.1413 tCO2/MWh and renewable share down to 75.44% as of 06:30 AEST.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firming afternoon and evening peak: forecast prices climb from $41-56/MWh around 07:00-07:30 AEST to a sustained $101-130/MWh band from mid-morning through to 18:00 AEST, with the sharpest spike forecast at 07:30-08:00 AEST tomorrow-equivalent window reaching $130.44/MWh. This aligns with a cool, low-solar-potential day (max 13.8°C, average solar potential just 8.9%, cloud cover 57%) that limits rooftop and grid-scale solar offset, leaving thermal and wind generation to cover the midday and evening demand blocks. Traders should note the extended $100+/MWh plateau forecast from 09:00 through 18:00 AEST reflects sustained tight conditions rather than a single peak, with the SA1 grid stress score at 77.4 signalling limited headroom — reinforced by yesterday's now-cancelled AEMO intervention event and directions issued to Torrens Island units to maintain voltage security, indicating the system was operating close to its margins going into today.