Commodity Demand — NSW1: Friday 19 June 2026

NSW spot sits at $79/MWh with demand at 7,360 MW at 06:30 AEST, climbing steadily from the overnight trough of around 6,540 MW recorded near 03:45 AEST. That low-demand window produced correspondingly soft pricing in the high-$50s range, confirming a clear price-demand relationship through the early hours: each 500–600 MW step up in demand has translated to roughly $15–20/MWh of price uplift, with the morning ramp from 06:00 AEST onwards pushing prices back through the $76–$83/MWh band as demand crosses 9,000 MW. The day's demand peak of approximately 9,820 MW occurred around 07:35 AEST at $76.58/MWh, with prices holding broadly in the low-to-mid $70s through the 08:00–10:00 AEST window before easing as demand pulled back below 9,000 MW through late morning.

Demand is now on a Saturday morning trajectory — the current 7,360 MW level reflects the weekend step-down from weekday peaks, and the absence of commercial and industrial load keeps the afternoon profile shallower than a typical weekday. The heating demand signal is modest at 5.9 units with an overnight temperature of 12.1°C, and today's forecast maximum of 18.9°C limits the heating-driven demand spike that colder mornings can produce. With 3% cloud cover and negligible solar potential at this hour, there is no rooftop suppression of underlying demand currently, though midday solar will trim some load off the midday period as the day progresses.

The forward price curve is the key watch for traders today. Forecasts show prices rising through the $84–$90/MWh range between 07:30 and 08:30 AEST (21:30–22:30 UTC), peaking near $111/MWh at 22:30 UTC (08:30 AEST local equivalent — noting these are UTC-based forecast intervals converting to approximately 08:00–10:00 AEST Saturday morning). The curve then moderates back toward the high $80s through midday before a sustained $84–$93/MWh band across the 11:00–17:00 AEST window. The trough of the day sits in the overnight period from approximately 13:00–16:30 AEST, with forecast prices dropping to the low-to-mid $50s — savings of over $50/MWh against the daytime peak. Flexible load operators and battery schedulers should note the 13:00–16:30 AEST window (03:00–06:00 UTC) as the optimal dispatch opportunity, consistent with the identified low-price windows averaging $53–$58/MWh.