Commodity Demand — SA1: Tuesday 16 June 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $0/MWh at 06:00 AEST with demand at 1,454 MW — a trough that reflects the tail end of a prolonged overnight low-demand window. The price-demand relationship across today's data is pronounced: when demand climbed to its overnight peak near 1,970 MW around 11:00–11:30 AEST, spot prices reached $33–$50/MWh, and the morning ramp between 15:00 and 18:30 AEST drove sustained pricing in the $55–$86/MWh range as demand pushed above 1,900 MW. The subsequent demand retreat through the afternoon and evening — falling to a daily low of around 1,361 MW at 04:00 AEST — coincided with prices collapsing to negative territory, reaching as low as -$2.01/MWh through the 04:00–05:30 AEST window. Wind is currently supplying 1,591 MW against total demand of 1,454 MW, with the surplus partially explaining the flat price.
The forward price curve signals a clear demand-driven escalation through the morning. Forecasts have prices lifting to $7.34/MWh by 07:00 AEST, $17.04/MWh by 08:00 AEST, and reaching $42/MWh by 13:00–13:30 AEST as the winter morning ramp builds. Today's temperature sits at 16°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 2 — conditions consistent with the moderate but sustained winter load profile already established. Tomorrow's forecast maximum of 17.5°C with average wind potential of 11.8 suggests wind output will remain strong, which is likely to cap how far prices escalate during the morning peak relative to what was observed in the 05:00–09:30 AEST window today, where prices consistently held $55–$86/MWh.
The critical inflection point today is the 13:00–14:00 AEST window, where the price forecast peaks at $42/MWh before falling sharply. From 18:30 AEST onward, the forecast flips deeply negative — down to -$3/MWh between 23:00 and 00:00 AEST — as demand softens into the evening trough and wind generation holds up under continued strong wind conditions. Traders and flexible load operators should note the structural pattern: SA's price sensitivity to demand is asymmetric, with relatively modest demand increases above 1,900 MW producing outsized price responses given the region's tight dispatchable capacity margin during those periods. The ST PASA Forecast LOR1 notice previously issued for SA on 17 June (0800–0930 and 1630–2230 AEST) has since been cancelled, removing a key upside risk flag from the morning peak window.