Interconnector Watch: Thursday 11 June 2026

VIC1-NSW1 (Murraylink excluded — zero flow, limits zeroed out) is at its export ceiling of 940.65 MW, binding on the export limit, with Victoria exporting to NSW at full allowed capacity. This single constraint is the primary driver of the sharp price spread between the two regions: VIC1 sits at effectively zero (–$0.05/MWh) against NSW1 at $80.13/MWh. The interconnector is physically unable to transfer any additional volume northward, trapping surplus in Victoria and preventing further price convergence. The Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line outage (constraint set V-KGKO, active since 9 June) and the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage (F-I_ML_APD_LOAD, active since 10 June) both have VIC1-NSW1 on their left-hand-side equations and are contributing to the constrained export envelope.

QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is binding at –538.52 MW against its import limit of –538.51 MW, meaning Queensland is importing from NSW at the interconnector's maximum allowed capacity in that direction. With QLD1 at $72.73/MWh and NSW1 at $80.13/MWh, the flow is running toward the lower-priced region — consistent with QLD having residual demand that NSW supply is filling to the binding limit. The active constraint notice CA_BRIS_593C7214, invoked from 0830 hrs 11 June for power system security in Queensland, is constraining N-Q-MNSP1 (Directlink) and is the operative reason QNI cannot absorb more northward flow. Directlink itself is flowing –33 MW toward Queensland, well within its –105.3 MW import capacity and not binding.

Heywood (V-SA) is moving 587.41 MW from Victoria into South Australia against an import limit of –639.84 MW, sitting at approximately 92% utilisation but not yet binding. SA1 is priced at –$0.04/MWh, essentially co-pricing with VIC1 at near-zero, which reflects the near-unconstrained flow of surplus Victorian generation westward. The Kerang–Koorangie outage constraint set V-KGKO also lists V-SA on its left-hand side, so headroom on Heywood is partially shaped by that network limitation. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) shows zero flow and zeroed limits, indicating it is out of service or suspended this interval.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is exporting 224.78 MW from Tasmania toward Victoria (negative convention, flowing TAS→VIC) against an import limit of –359.5 MW — roughly 63% utilised and not binding. TAS1 at $77.95/MWh prices above VIC1's near-zero level, which would ordinarily suppress Tasmanian exports, but the flow magnitude suggests dispatch is being driven by contract or unit commitment factors rather than pure spot arbitrage at this interval. The APD A2 transformer outage constraint F-I_ML_APD_LOAD has Basslink on its left-hand side, capping the export envelope below its unconstrained rating. The dominant NEM price story today is the VIC1-NSW1 binding export limit: until that constraint clears, the $80/MW