Load Advisor: Friday 5 June 2026
NEM spot prices are currently sitting at $92.72/MWh in NSW, $84.50/MWh in QLD, $101.95/MWh in SA, $77.11/MWh in VIC, $80.20/MWh in TAS, and $124.83/MWh in WA. These are the reference prices against which tonight's overnight trough will deliver significant savings. The standout load-shifting opportunity across the interconnected NEM regions lies in the window spanning approximately 09:30–14:00 AEST tonight (10:30 PM–3:00 AM UTC), where predispatch forecasts show NSW prices collapsing to $1–12/MWh, VIC to $1–11/MWh, QLD going negative (as low as -$2.71/MWh), and SA touching -$1.48/MWh. The deepest NSW trough is forecast at 11:30 AEST ($1.03/MWh) with savings against the current spot price of up to $326/MWh. QLD posts the most sustained negative pricing of any region, holding sub-zero or near-zero across multiple half-hours from roughly 10:00 AEST through to 14:30 AEST — flexible loads in QLD can effectively run for free or be paid to consume.
SA presents the largest absolute volatility and therefore the strongest incentive to shift. Current spot is $101.95/MWh and the overnight trough will see prices drop to near zero or slightly negative between approximately 11:30 AEST and 14:30 AEST, representing savings of up to $1,001/MWh. However, SA predispatch data shows significant spread in interval forecasts — multiple intervals retain $49–88/MWh price points even during the trough period, indicating bimodal dispatch outcomes and higher execution risk. Operators with interruptible loads in SA should target the specific intervals where price is confirmed below $22/MWh rather than assuming a blanket trough. TAS prices are locked at $80.20/MWh throughout the predispatch window with no meaningful trough, so load shifting there offers minimal benefit under this cycle. VIC's overnight trough arrives slightly earlier than NSW, with the 08:30–09:00 AEST window (00:30–01:00 UTC) showing prices at $1–5/MWh — worth targeting for Victorian assets with shorter scheduling lead times.
Evening peak risk is the critical avoid window. Prices in NSW are already at $92.72/MWh and predispatch shows the 06:00–07:30 AEST morning ramp (today's wake-up period) will push NSW back above $56–71/MWh, with SA returning to $86–87/MWh by 16:30 AEST. QLD is forecast to recover sharply to $47–60/MWh from 16:00 AEST onward. Any flexible load — EV charging, HVAC pre-cooling (noting winter heating demand is low at current temperatures of 7–11°C across most regions), industrial batch processing, water heating, or battery charging — should be shifted out of the 07:30–10:00 AEST window and the post-16:00 AEST evening ramp in NSW, QLD, and SA.
The concrete recommendation: schedule the bulk of flexible NEM loads to run between 10:30 AEST tonight