Interconnector Watch: Thursday 28 May 2026

NEM-wide interconnectors are moving power from lower-priced southern and western regions toward higher-priced New South Wales, with one interconnector binding hard at its import limit this interval. The Queensland-NSW Interconnector (QNI) is the standout: flow sits at -517.45 MW, fully bound at its import limit of -517.45 MW, meaning QNI is at 100% of its southward import capacity into NSW right now. That binding constraint is directly supporting the NSW price premium — NSW clears at $120.67/MWh against Queensland's $107.97/MWh, a $12.70/MWh spread that reflects the cost of the congestion preventing further southward flow. QLD's northward export limit of just 36.39 MW leaves virtually no headroom for the flow direction to reverse.

VIC-NSW (Murimbidgee-to-NSW direction) carries 324.61 MW northward from Victoria into NSW, operating well within its 1,144.86 MW export ceiling and not binding. This flow is consistent with Victoria's price of $110.50/MWh sitting below NSW's $120.67/MWh, with the spread providing an arbitrage incentive for southward-to-northward transfer. Heywood (V-SA) is running at -24.34 MW — a small flow from SA into Victoria — and is binding at its import limit of -24.34 MW. Despite the binding status, the magnitude is modest, and the SA-VIC price differential ($103.86/MWh versus $110.50/MWh) is relatively contained at $6.64/MWh. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) carries -12.93 MW from SA toward Victoria, bound at its export limit of -12.93 MW, meaning no additional SA-to-VIC transfer is available via that link — consistent with the active market notices noting Murraylink's dynamic rating constraints (VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN and SVML_RAT_LIM_DYN) now in force in pre-dispatch and PASA following AEMO's model activation on 27 May. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) sits at zero flow, well within its ±125 MW capability, leaving Tasmania's $97.52/MWh price isolated from the mainland — the cheapest region in the NEM today with no export currently moving to capture the spread.

The Interconnector (N-Q-MNSP1, Directlink) flows at -41 MW southward toward NSW, operating at 36% of its -113.2 MW import limit and not binding. Active network notices continue to carry constraint implications from the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line outage (constraint set V-KOWE, affecting V-S-MNSP1, T-V-MNSP1, V-SA, and VIC1-NSW1) and the Tailem Bend 275 kV East Bus outage (S-TB275_E_BUS, affecting V-SA), both still marked active. These network reductions are contributing to the tight conditions on Heywood and Murraylink and are limiting AEMO's ability to move more power between SA and Victoria. Traders should watch QNI's import limit closely — any tightening of NSW demand above 7,917 MW with QNI already at ceiling amplifies upside price risk in NSW with no additional northward QLD