Regional Outlook — NSW1: Tuesday 19 May 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $67.08/MWh with total demand at 7,944 MW as of 06:25 AEST. That current price represents a significant easing from the evening peak, which saw intervals touch $130.98/MWh around 08:40 AEST overnight and sustained a run above $100/MWh through the 07:00–08:30 AEST window. The broad 24-hour range has been $56.03–$130.98/MWh, with the modal price clustering around $66.88–$84.79/MWh during off-peak hours. The most recent trading period shows prices moderating sharply after the morning ramp, consistent with demand pulling back from its overnight peak near 9,840 MW.

The generation mix at the last trading interval (06:00 AEST) is dominated by black coal at 5,009 MW, with wind contributing 851 MW, hydro 640 MW, batteries 154 MW, and utility solar 144 MW. Gas (both OCGT and CCGT) is offline at zero output. Total scheduled generation sits at approximately 6,797 MW from dispatchable plant, with the balance met by imports and non-scheduled generation. Renewables — wind, solar, and hydro combined — are contributing approximately 26.3% of operational demand, up from lows around 20–21% during the overnight peak. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6483 tCO2/MWh, having improved from a high of 0.7000 tCO2/MWh in the early evening and tracking a gradual downward trend overnight before rising again through the morning demand peak. With 3% cloud cover and minimal solar potential at this early hour, solar contribution will lift through the morning but today's outlook (max 17.9°C, average solar potential 19.9) is modest for mid-May.

Predispatch forecasts point to a price step-up into the coming evening peak. The most recent forecast runs place the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval at $84.79/MWh and the 07:30 AEST interval at $91.70/MWh, with some earlier model runs having forecast that interval as high as $98.14–$120/MWh before being revised down. The spread between early and late predispatch estimates for those intervals indicates supply-side uncertainty heading into tonight's demand ramp. Load optimisation windows show prices collapsing to sub-$25/MWh and into negative territory from approximately 09:00–10:00 AEST (23:00–00:00 UTC), driven by overnight conditions — the optimal window for flexible load or battery charging.

Two AEMO market systems notices are active and relevant for operational planning: EMMS Production Systems are scheduled for a datacentre transfer from 22–27 May 2026, with a one-hour outage window from 04:00–05:00 AEST on 27 May during which FPP calculation delivery may be delayed and the Market Portal will be intermittently unavailable. The Identity Service (IDS) is also undergoing a site transfer on 26 May, with potential session disruption for MSATS, EMMS APIs, and portal logins between 04:00–04:15 AEST on 27 May. The MT PASA reserve notice published 19 May identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM outlook period. The Upper